Macro Policy Statements Did Not Exceed Expectations; Fundamentals Are Mixed, Tin Prices Fluctuate Upward [SMM Tin Futures Brief Review]

Daily Review of the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Futures Contract (SN2504) on March 5, 2025

​Market Review​

The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2504) fluctuated upward today, with prices first declining and then rebounding, closing in positive territory. By the close, the most-traded contract settled at 256,990 yuan/mt, up 220 yuan/mt or 0.09% from the previous trading day. The intraday price range was 256,000-258,000 yuan/mt, with the price center slightly higher than the previous trading day. Market trading sentiment remained cautious, maintaining an overall range-bound pattern.

​Analysis of Influencing Factors​

1. ​Limited Boost from Macro Policies​
   During the Two Sessions in China, the government work report outlined the general requirements of "stabilizing the real estate market and the stock market," boosting risk appetite in financial markets and providing sentiment support to the non-ferrous metals sector. However, the policy statements did not exceed expectations. Coupled with the upcoming release of several US economic data (e.g., non-farm payrolls), the market maintained a strong wait-and-see attitude toward macro guidance, limiting the upside room for tin prices.

2. ​Mixed Fundamentals​

   • ​Supply Side: The expected resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, remains a potential bearish factor. However, in the short term, tin concentrate TC has fallen to historical lows (approximately 13,000 yuan/mt for 40% grade tin concentrate in Yunnan), squeezing smelter production profits. Some enterprises may be forced to cut production, providing support for prices.
   • ​Demand Side: Spot market transactions slightly improved, with just-in-time procurement by downstream enterprises increasing this week. The inventory pressure of tin ingots eased somewhat, but overall consumption remained focused on "restocking on dips," with limited acceptance of high prices.

3. ​External Disturbances​
   The US announcement of a 25% tariff on imported copper raised concerns about trade flows in the non-ferrous metals sector. However, the direct correlation with tin is relatively weak, and the impact is diminishing marginally. Additionally, LME tin inventory continues to accumulate (currently reaching a nearly three-year high), while domestic inventory saw slight destocking, exacerbating the divergence between domestic and international markets.

​Technical Analysis and Capital Movements​

• ​Technical Patterns: On the daily chart, the most-traded contract remains within the 250,000-260,000 yuan/mt range. Short-term moving averages are intertwined, and the MACD momentum bars have narrowed, indicating that a directional breakout requires stronger drivers.
• ​Capital Movements: Intraday open interest showed limited changes, with the market primarily engaging in short-term trading. Some funds opted to exit and wait on the sidelines ahead of the release of macroeconomic data.